Following is the latest used-car pricing report from Ricky Beggs at Black Book USA. For the full report visit their data and videos center.
Even though the activity increased week over week, there were some interesting changes within the market values for the week. The softening in values continues as only 11% of all adjustments were increases to the previously published value, very similar to the week ending June 8 and even less than the 18% level of one year ago. The comment in a report from the western part of the country in Washington saying ”prices are coming down slowly” supports the “retail has slowed” comment from a Tennessee report. Couple those two comments with the “either they want it and will pay or don’t even look” from a North Carolina report and the lower % of increases and overall level of changes, fits right in line.
Plenty of adjustments were made throughout the week. As a matter of fact the average daily adjustment level of 3080 per day was the second highest level in at least the past year behind the week ending January 13, 2012 when the record of 3283 per day was established. Only one other week have we broken the 3000 plus level and that was the 3035 per day for the week ending May 18, 2012. During the record setting week in January the percentage of increases was a significant 56% and a pretty solid 36% during the week when the 3035 daily changes occurred.
As we look at the segment changes, the -$51 average segment change in the cars was the largest decline since the week ending February 3, 2012. This past week’s change was more than 2.5 times the year ago level of -$20. The most recent five-week average change of -$42 was last surpassed by the -$55 five-week average during the final week of November and the end of calendar year 2011.
Another interesting level of change was within all 10 car segments, the -$24 for the Entry Sporty Cars (ESC) was the smallest change and on the other end of the change level the largest weekly decline was the Premium Sporty Cars (PSC) at -$78. This end of the spectrum was followed by the -$77 for the Entry Mid-size Cars (EMC).
The 14 truck segments were just as soft as the average segment change of -$58 was the second highest level of decline since the week ending September 23, 2011. The largest segment adjustment was -$99 within the Full-size Crossovers (FXU). The other extreme was the lowest amount of change at -$28 for the Compact Pickups (CPT). To better understand the level of current changes and softness in the market one only has to look at the most recent five-week average change within the trucks. At the -$55 5 week average the next closest five-week average was last fall during the seasonal adjustment period at -$49 for the weeks of August 26 through September 23, 2011.
One other interesting change we recorded this past week was the increase in gas prices. A change of +$.05 week over week is the first increase for the past 15 weeks back to the week of March 26. Even with the increase we are still $.23 less than the price at the pump one year ago.
The bottom line is a slight increase in used vehicle supply in the wholesale market from the continuously increasing new car sales levels, along with the current seasonal adjustments which are a reflection of making room for another model year to come into the market, and the change level is more realistic, understandable and expected rather than a level of surprise and reaction of “what’s going on here”.